What’s Next for the Post-Pandemic Economy?
Jay Kloepfer analyzes the U.S. economy in 2021 and provides an outlook for 2022.
2021—Starting Off with Gusto!
How the economy did in 1Q21, and the outlook ahead.
How the Fed’s COVID-19 Programs Affected Markets and Investors
Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in March, financial markets have experienced levels of disruption not seen since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008. After bid-ask spreads widened dramatically in March across a broad array of fixed income sectors—including off-the-run U.S. Treasuries!—a series of Federal Reserve programs has restored investor confidence and liquidity, and […]
The Fed Speaks: ‘A Mid-Cycle Adjustment to Policy’
The U.S. economy continued its now-record expansion in the second quarter with a 2.1% gain in GDP, slower than the robust 3.1% in the first quarter but well ahead of expectations. Consumer spending rose 4.3% in the quarter, supported by solid gains in the job market and disposable income growth of 5% in each of […]
Fed Sends Strong Message, but More Needed
On Sunday, the U.S. Federal Reserve announced several measures intended to provide liquidity and restore confidence in the markets: An emergency rate cut: Fed Funds Rate was cut 100 bps to 0.00% to 0.25%. The Fed is committed to keeping rates at the zero lower bound until “it is confident that the economy has weathered […]
2019—A Surprisingly Lofty End to the Decade
From my post a year ago: “As widely expected … the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously to increase its federal funds rate target by 25 bps, bringing it to 2.25%–2.50%. … the year-end read of fed funds futures prices indicated a nearly 90% probability of no Fed hikes in 2019. … the FOMC also reduced […]
What Correction?
With the S&P 500 suffering its worst December since 1931, and the equity market falling by nearly 20% at one point during the month, suffice it to say that 2018 ended with a thud rather than a bang. However, just as we saw a snap-back from the drawdown in early 2018 (for different reasons), the […]
The Outlook From Fixed Income Managers
View the Outlook Callan conducts a quarterly survey of select fixed income managers to gauge their sentiments about the current market environment and solicit their near-term outlook (6-9 months) on key issues such as Federal Reserve rate hikes, inflation, and other factors that affect bond portfolios. In our most recent survey, for the first quarter […]
Sentiment Restored. Is It Time to Worry?
View Market Review The U.S. economy closed out 2017 with decent momentum, recording a solid 2.6% gain in GDP in the fourth quarter after growth above 3% in each of the prior two quarters. Investor sentiment felt disconnected as the year unfolded; the underlying global economy appeared to be steadily improving and capital markets reported […]