Capital Markets Assumptions

Callan Institute logo

The 2024-2033 Capital Markets Assumptions are Callan’s
long-term expectations for return and volatility for
broad asset classes.

Callan's 10-year assumptions by asset class

Explore our long-term outlook for return and risk for all of the major asset classes. In this chart, you can view those assumptions by asset class type, such as equities or fixed income. Simply hover over the various bars in the chart to see the relevant index.

How have our Capital Markets Assumptions done compared to actual returns? Read our blog post here.

Our famous “Risky Business” pie charts use the CMAs to illustrate what it has taken over time to earn the same return. Find the latest results here.


View the webinar: 2024-2033 Capital Markets Assumptions

This webinar, presented by Jay Kloepfer, Kevin Machiz, and Adam Lozinski, details the process and rationale behind our long-term assumptions and the potential implications for strategic recommendations.

How does asset allocation affect risk and return?

Select different mixes below to see.

Learn more about Callan's Capital Markets Assumptions

2024 White Paper

2024 Charticle

Asset 1

Capital Markets Assumptions:
A Manifesto

History of our assumptions

Look back over the last two decades to see how our projections have changed. Hover over any point on the time line to view projections for any year over the last 20. Click on a specific asset class to highlight its changes over the whole time period.
Jay Kloepfer
“Our projections are informed by current market conditions but are not directly built from them since the forecasts are long term in nature.”

Jay Kloepfer

Executive Vice President
and Director of Capital Markets Research group

Questions about Callan's
Capital Markets Assumptions?