Q&A: 2018 Capital Market Projections
View Projections View ‘Charticle’ Callan recently published our 2018 Capital Market Projections, detailing our expectations for return, volatility, and correlation for broad asset classes. These projections represent our best thinking regarding a longer-term outlook and are critical for strategic planning as our investor clients set investment expectations over five-year, ten-year, and longer time horizons. Over […]
Kickin’ It with Risk
View PDF As MAD magazine’s Alfred E. Neuman proclaims, “What, Me Worry?” In the third quarter, global markets fully embraced that fearless mantra. And why not? Discarding past worries of stubbornly slow economic growth and other trifling distractions, markets focused on positive catalysts suggesting rising prices ahead. Corporate earnings worldwide enjoyed a notable uptick. Shrinking ranks of […]
Up, Up, Up, and Away for Global Equities
.With volatility extremely low and the global economy humming along, equity markets around the world continued their steady march upward in the third quarter, part of what has been dubbed the “everything rally” as bonds and commodities have also done well
Perspectives on the Global Economy
The recent Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Group, which I attended along with thousands of global fixed income investors, policymakers from governments issuing debt, economists, and other market participants, offered a wealth of insight and analysis for institutional investors on the global financial picture. In its World Economic Outlook report, […]
Happy Anniversary, Black Monday
The U.S. stock market reached a new high today, coinciding with the 30th anniversary of Black Monday, an event of now-mythic proportions.
Uncertainty Beyond the Next Eclipse
Unlike the laws of physics driving our solar system, our financial markets can surprise investors with moments of darkness.
Why Is Inflation So Low?
View PDF We are now eight years into the economic recovery in the U.S., arguably the latter stages of a mature expansion and at a point where inflationary pressures typically begin to build. Yet price and wage inflation remain stubbornly subdued. Headline and particularly core inflation have drifted down over the past several months. Headline […]
A Small Bounceback for Real Estate
View PDF The NCREIF Property Index advanced 1.8% during the second quarter (1.2% from income and 0.6% from appreciation). This marked the 34th consecutive quarter of positive returns for the Index. Appreciation return increased from the previous quarter, the first such gain since the first quarter of 2015. Industrial (+3.1%) was the best-performing sector for […]
Many Plans Risk Up for Returns
View PDF Fund sponsors are beginning to come to grips with lower capital market return expectations. Pension funds are reducing actuarial return assumptions, and endowments and foundations are discussing and making adjustments to spending rules. Some funds are addressing this issue by taking on substantial market risk (80%-85% in risky assets) to attempt to close […]
As the World Churns, Despacito
View PDF Stock lovers embraced the slowly shifting narrative of global growth in the second quarter. Although hopes of a Trump bump faded further in the U.S. amid distracting Beltway theatrics, U.S. corporate profits remained resilient and credit spreads tightened modestly. Exhibiting little evidence of angst, the S&P 500 Index gained 3.1% while the Bloomberg […]