The Most Anticipated Recession in History Fails to Materialize

View PDF Real GDP grew at 2.1% for the fourth quarter of 2019, capping off a year pretty much no one anticipated for growth or the capital markets. GDP growth for the year came in at 2.3%, unemployment fell to yet another generational low, wages and incomes continued to show robust gains, and yet inflation […]

Global Headwinds Cloud Outlook for U.S.

The U.S. economy continued to perform reasonably well in the third quarter, with several September data points surpassing expectations. That said, global growth continued to languish, especially in manufacturing where trade wars have taken a toll. Inflation also remained stubbornly low. Against that backdrop, the U.S. dollar was a star performer, up 3.4% versus a […]

Resilience in the Face of Uncertainty

View PDF Investor confidence has shifted wildly over the past six months. Anxiety, panic, and gloom pushed equity markets down around the globe through the last three months of 2018, culminating in one of the worst Decembers in decades. The pessimism derailed global interest rate policy. The central banks in the euro zone had yet […]

Everything Is Great! Right?

View PDF September 20 marked the capstone of a summer run-up in the U.S. equity market. We saw a true market correction in February (S&P 500 Index down 10.1%) and a drawdown of more than 7% in March, but the memory of those experiences was obliterated by a smooth, steady climb, with the S&P 500 […]

Summer Doldrums for the Economy?

Summer months are typically a quiet time for the markets. Recent events, however, may disrupt this tradition. Threats of escalating trade wars have cast a pall over equities, and numerous geopolitical uncertainties continue to push investors toward a more cautious stance. A desynchronization in global growth as well as a divergence in central banks’ monetary […]

Trade Wars and Other Risks to the Global Economy

Zanny Minton Beddoes, the editor-in-chief of The Economist, highlighted the “extraordinary dichotomy” between the political realm, full of grim news, and the global economy and financial markets, which are remarkably strong. The focus for investors, she said, should be to take a stance on which of those two views is right: Should they believe in the strength of the economy or take a signal from the bad political news?