Strong Quarter Caps an Even Stronger Year
2019 was a remarkable year for the financial markets; here I break down results for the major asset classes: Equity Markets The S&P 500 Index rose 9.1% in the fourth quarter, bringing its year-to-date result to a whopping 31.5%, the best calendar year return since 2013 and capping a decade of strong performance. Small cap […]
2019—A Surprisingly Lofty End to the Decade
From my post a year ago: “As widely expected … the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously to increase its federal funds rate target by 25 bps, bringing it to 2.25%–2.50%. … the year-end read of fed funds futures prices indicated a nearly 90% probability of no Fed hikes in 2019. … the FOMC also reduced […]
Mostly Strong Gains Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty
Equity Markets The S&P 500 gained 1.7% in the third quarter, and 20.6% for the year to date. However, returns were mixed across sectors. Utilities (+9.3%) and Real Estate (+7.7%) both benefited from lower interest rates. Gains for both sectors are approaching 30% on a year-to-date basis. Energy, hurt by falling oil prices, lost 6.3% […]
Global Headwinds Cloud Outlook for U.S.
The U.S. economy continued to perform reasonably well in the third quarter, with several September data points surpassing expectations. That said, global growth continued to languish, especially in manufacturing where trade wars have taken a toll. Inflation also remained stubbornly low. Against that backdrop, the U.S. dollar was a star performer, up 3.4% versus a […]
Must All Good Things Come to an End?
As the U.S. enters its 121st month of expansion, and valuations are lofty in most markets, the timing of a recession remain forefront on investors’ minds
A Primer on Interval Funds
Over the past several years, as managers have struggled to retain assets in active products and investors have flooded into all forms of alternatives, the investing industry has witnessed growing popularity in a structure that has actually been around for some time—the interval fund. A number of notable managers have recently launched interval fund products, […]
Global Macroeconomic Environment: Is the Glass Half Full or Half Empty?
Investors’ appetite for risk, while elevated for much of 2018, evaporated as the year drew to a close and wiped out positive returns for the year across broad asset classes (T-bills being a notable exception). Concerns over tighter monetary policy and the global withdrawal of stimulus measures, unresolved trade disputes, falling oil prices, slower global […]
Tax Reform and the Muni Bond Market
The House passed its tax reform bill and the Senate is slated to vote on its version as early as this week. Importantly, both versions preserve the tax exemption of municipal bonds. There are common features as well as differences in the two proposals, and the differences must be resolved before the bill becomes law. What […]