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There Was Really No Place to Hide in World Markets

There Was Really No Place to Hide in World Markets
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3 min 18 sec
Highlights from the Global Markets in 3Q22

U.S. Equity: The S&P 500 Index sank 4.9% in 3Q22 and is down 23.9% year-to-date (YTD). Returns were quite mixed across sectors with Energy (+2.3%) and Consumer Discretionary (+4.4%) posting positive results and Communication Services (-12.7%) and Real Estate (-11.0%) delivering the lowest returns. Somewhat counterintuitively, value underperformed growth (Russell 1000 Value: -5.6%; Russell 1000 Growth: -3.6%) but value remains ahead on a YTD basis (Russell 1000 Value: -17.8%; Russell 1000 Growth: -30.7%). Small caps outperformed large (Russell 2000: -2.2%; Russell 1000: -4.6%), narrowing the YTD differential (Russell 2000: -25.1%; Russell 1000: -24.6%).

Global ex-U.S. Equity: Global ex-U.S. markets fared worse, driven mostly by U.S. dollar strength. The MSCI ACWI ex USA Index fell 9.9% (Local: -4.9%), bringing its YTD loss to 26.5% (Local: -16.2%). The U.S. dollar continued to strengthen, benefiting from its “safe haven” status as well as attractive interest rates relative to other developed markets. The yen and euro lost 6% versus the greenback and the British pound fell 8%. Across developed market countries, losses were broad-based with several posting double-digit declines. As in the U.S., value (MSCI ACWI ex USA Value: -10.4%) underperformed growth (MSCI ACWI ex USA Growth: -9.4%). Unlike the U.S., no sectors delivered a positive return in 3Q.

Emerging Market Equity: Emerging markets (MSCI Emerging Markets: -11.6%; Local: -8.2%) underperformed developed markets for the quarter but returns were mixed across countries. China (MSCI China: -22.5%) was one of the worst performers while several countries posted positive returns; two of the best were India (+6.5%) and Brazil (+8.5%). Returns were also mixed across regions: Latin America (+3.6%), Emerging Europe (-12.4%), and Emerging Asia (-14.0%).

U.S. Fixed Income: The 10-year U.S. Treasury briefly touched an intra-quarter high of 4.0% in late September, the highest since 2008, before closing the quarter at 3.83%. At quarter-end, the yield curve was inverted by about 40 bps with the 10-year at 3.8% and the 2-year at 4.2%. The Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index fell 4.8% in 3Q, bringing its YTD loss to a startling 14.6%, a historic worst for the first nine months of a year. Notably, the sharp sell-off has eroded gains over the past 10 years; the Aggregate’s 10-year annualized gain is now a muted 0.9%.

Mortgages and corporates underperformed U.S. Treasuries, with mortgage-backed securities doing especially poorly, underperforming like-duration U.S. Treasuries by 160 bps on poor technicals and rising rates. The yield-to-worst of the Aggregate Index climbed to 4.75%, up sharply from 1.75% at the beginning of the year. TIPS (Bloomberg TIPS: -5.1%; -13.6% YTD) were not immune from the sell-off. High yield corporates (Bloomberg High Yield: -0.6%) fared better, but the Index is down a similar 14.7% YTD. The yield-to-worst was 9.7% as of quarter-end.

Municipal Bonds: The Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index fell 3.5% for the quarter and is down 12.1% YTD. The shorter duration 1-10 Year Blend fell 2.3% for the quarter and 7.7% YTD. The ratio of AAA Municipal yields to the 10-year U.S. Treasury fell to 86%, down from 92% at the end of 2Q. The 4.0% yield-to-worst of the Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index is the highest since 2009, and the tax-equivalent yield was 6.8% as of quarter-end (source: Morgan Stanley). Outflows for the first nine months of the year were a record-breaking $91.5 billion.

Global ex-U.S. Fixed: Interest rates also rose overseas and the U.S. dollar continued to strengthen, hurting unhedged fixed income returns. The Bloomberg Global Aggregate ex USD fell 8.8% (hedged: -2.2%). The YTD differential for hedged and unhedged investors is 14 percentage points (unhedged: -23.9%; hedged: -9.9%). Losses were broad-based but the U.K. fell the most sharply; 13.2% in local currency terms and 20.2% in US$ in response to announced plans for massive fiscal stimulus in the form of unfunded tax cuts.

Emerging Market Debt: Emerging markets performed similarly, with the JPM EMBI Global Diversified down 4.6% and the local currency JPM GBI-EM Global Diversified off 4.7%. Negative returns were broad-based across countries for both indices, with Brazil being a notable exception. Brazil was up 0.5% in the EMBI Global Diversified (debt issued in U.S. dollars) and up 1.8% in the GBI-EM Global Diversified (issued in local currency).

Real Assets: Real assets as a group posted negative returns in 3Q. Commodity prices, especially metals and oil, declined on concerns over slowing global growth; the S&P GSCI Index fell 10.3%. WTI Crude closed the quarter at $79/barrel, down more than 20% from 2Q. Gold (S&P Gold Spot Price Index: -7.5%), listed infrastructure (DJB Global Infrastructure: -1.1%), REITs (MSCI US REIT: -10.0%), and TIPS (Bloomberg TIPS: -5.1%) declined.

Disclosures

Certain information herein has been compiled by Callan and is based on information provided by a variety of sources believed to be reliable for which Callan has not necessarily verified the accuracy or completeness of or updated. This report is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as legal or tax advice on any matter. Any investment decision you make on the basis of this report is your sole responsibility. You should consult with legal and tax advisers before applying any of this information to your particular situation. Reference in this report to any product, service, or entity should not be construed as a recommendation, approval, affiliation, or endorsement of such product, service, or entity by Callan. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This report may consist of statements of opinion, which are made as of the date they are expressed and are not statements of fact. The Callan Institute (the “Institute”) is, and will be, the sole owner and copyright holder of all material prepared or developed by the Institute. No party has the right to reproduce, revise, resell, disseminate externally, disseminate to subsidiaries or parents, or post on internal web sites any part of any material prepared or developed by the Institute, without the Institute’s permission. Institute clients only have the right to utilize such material internally in their business.

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