U.S. fixed income
U.S. Treasury yields fell to record lows in March as investors sought safety and the Fed cut rates to 0%-0.25%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reached a low in March of 0.31% before closing the quarter at 0.70%, down sharply from the year-end level of 1.92%. Other sectors significantly underperformed U.S. Treasuries, hurt both by challenging liquidity conditions as well as concerns over the economic impact of the pandemic. The Fed responded rapidly and aggressively with several programs designed to improve liquidity and lend support to the fixed income markets. As a result, improvements in liquidity and relative performance were noted going into quarter-end.
While the Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index rose 3.1% for the quarter, results were driven largely by performance of the Treasury sector (+8.2%). Corporates (-3.6%) and most securitized sectors underperformed U.S. Treasuries. The quality bias was evident in the return for the AAA-rated component (+5.8%) versus BBBs (-7.4%). TIPS (Bloomberg Barclays TIPS: +1.7%) sharply underperformed nominal Treasuries as expectations for inflation sank. The 10-year breakeven spread ended the quarter at 87 bps, down sharply from 177 bps at year-end.
High yield corporate bonds (Bloomberg Barclays High Yield: -12.7%) fell sharply and ended the quarter with a yield-to-worst of 9.4%, though it topped 10% in mid-March, the highest level since the GFC. Excluding the beleaguered Energy sector, high yield fell 9.1%. Leveraged loans performed even worse (S&P LSTA: -13.0%) and both high yield and leveraged loans experienced heavy outflows.
Global fixed income
Developed ex-U.S. market returns were relatively flat in broad terms. The Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate ex-US Index fell 2.7% unhedged but rose 0.5% on a hedged basis as the U.S. dollar strengthened modestly against a basket of currencies.
Emerging market debt underperformed in the risk-off environment. The U.S. dollar-denominated JPM EMBI Global Diversified Index dropped 13.4%, with returns varying across its 60+ constituents. Emerging market currencies were also under pressure. Local currency emerging market debt, as measured by the JPM GBI-EM Global Diversified Index, fell 15.2% in the quarter, with several local market returns in Latin America dropping about 20% (Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia) and South Africa down 29%.
Tax-exempt
The municipal bond market experienced extreme volatility in March that was somewhat masked in first quarter returns. The broad Bloomberg Barclays Municipal Bond Index fell 0.6% in the quarter, but notably the index dropped 3.6% in March. Record outflows and a dramatic decline in liquidity drove yields in the muni market sharply higher in mid-March. Yields reversed course going into quarter-end on the back of Fed announcements that lent support to the market.
Cross-market valuations between U.S. Treasuries and AAA-rated munis reached unprecedented levels in March; five-year AAA municipal yields rose nearly 200 bps during the month to nearly six times the yield of a comparable five-year U.S. Treasury note. Not surprisingly, higher quality outperformed (AAA: +0.5%; BBB: -4.7%) for the quarter. While fundamentals of some sectors will be challenged in the wake of the economic downturn and downgrades may ensue, recent government stimulus programs should help to mitigate any near-term pressure on finances.
